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 CelesTrak

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  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
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Data current as of 2026 Jan 16 22:05:34 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2026 Jan 16 22:00:00 UTC, Stop = 2026 Jan 23 22:00:00 UTC
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 14,144 Primaries, 29,703 Secondaries (112,446 Conjunctions)
8 SGP4 Propagation Errors
Computation run time: 09h 06m 31.282s

SOCRATES Format Documentation

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Data
&
Graphs		 NORAD
Catalog
Number		 Name [Ops Status] Days
Since
Epoch		 TCA
(UTC)		 Min
Range
(km)		 Relative
Speed
(km/sec)
Max
Probability		 Dilution
Threshold
(km)
GP Data 59869 STARLINK-31760 [+] 3.229 2026-01-19 17:52:26.017 0.022 14.003
50 km All 62407 ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B [-] 3.156 1.324E-01 0.010
GP Data 67261 OBJECT P [+] 2.021 2026-01-18 12:34:58.407 2.811 0.004
50 km All 67272 OBJECT AA [+] 2.021 1.185E-01 0.001
GP Data 67261 OBJECT P [+] 2.058 2026-01-18 13:28:23.443 1.930 0.003
50 km All 67272 OBJECT AA [+] 2.059 1.185E-01 0.001
GP Data 67261 OBJECT P [+] 2.088 2026-01-18 14:10:39.868 0.005 0.003
50 km All 67272 OBJECT AA [+] 2.088 1.185E-01 0.001
GP Data 67261 OBJECT P [+] 2.119 2026-01-18 14:56:04.908 0.956 0.003
50 km All 67272 OBJECT AA [+] 2.119 1.185E-01 0.001
GP Data 67261 OBJECT P [+] 2.154 2026-01-18 15:46:43.124 2.815 0.004
50 km All 67272 OBJECT AA [+] 2.155 1.185E-01 0.001
GP Data 67261 OBJECT P [+] 2.181 2026-01-18 16:24:20.864 3.428 0.004
50 km All 67272 OBJECT AA [+] 2.181 1.185E-01 0.001
GP Data 42945 YAOGAN-30 02A [+] 0.929 2026-01-17 13:52:37.406 0.033 9.518
50 km All 57698 STARLINK-30288 [+] 1.164 8.938E-02 0.010
GP Data 59773 COSMOS 2576 [+] 5.626 2026-01-22 08:32:20.658 0.037 8.154
50 km All 62607 STARLINK-32784 [+] 5.807 7.465E-02 0.010
GP Data 63986 SCS-01 E [+] 0.471 2026-01-16 23:04:14.678 0.107 0.000
50 km All 66699 IRIDE FM5 [+] 0.471 6.821E-02 0.002

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Data: The GP Data button links to a page which provides the GP data used to generate the associated prediction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: SATCAT names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD GP or SupGP (green) element set used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Relative Speed (km/sec): Relative speed of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here. For more details on the maximum probability method, see Dr. Sal Alfano's paper titled "Relating Position Uncertainty to Maximum Conjunction Probability".
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • SGP4 Propagation Errors: A list of objects which were not screened because their GP data shows they have already decayed (but haven't yet been reflected in the SATCAT) or will decay prior to the end of the computation interval.