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CelesTrak

Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items


Data current as of 2024 Nov 07 16:05:35 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2024 Nov 07 16:00:00 UTC, Stop = 2024 Nov 14 16:00:00 UTC
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 10,354 Primaries, 26,818 Secondaries (73,667 Conjunctions)
28 SGP4 Propagation Errors
Computation run time: 06h 30m 59.613s

SOCRATES Format Documentation

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Data
&
Graphs
NORAD
Catalog
Number
Name [Ops Status] Days
Since
Epoch
TCA
(UTC)
Min
Range
(km)
Relative
Speed
(km/sec)
Max
Probability
Dilution
Threshold
(km)
GP Data 48908 MANDRAKE 2 BAKER [+] 4.582 2024-11-11 06:38:31.996 0.010 13.850
50 km All 60413 STARLINK-32178 [+] 4.136 1.000E+00 0.000
GP Data 51124 STARLINK-3389 [+] 7.234 2024-11-14 06:27:10.610 0.011 9.949
50 km All 57179 OBJECT P [+] 7.170 1.000E+00 0.000
GP Data 48461 STARLINK-2693 [P] 7.420 2024-11-14 10:34:50.119 0.050 12.055
50 km All 60584 STARLINK-32204 [+] 7.443 1.060E-01 0.018
GP Data 52673 STARLINK-3976 [+] 2.267 2024-11-09 07:25:40.478 0.033 12.905
50 km All 57037 OBJECT AK [+] 2.539 7.121E-02 0.013
GP Data 51057 KEPLER-16 (ASTRAEUS) [+] 4.649 2024-11-11 08:37:24.856 0.038 13.094
50 km All 59660 STARLINK-31885 [+] 4.266 5.346E-02 0.015
GP Data 56833 STARLINK-30131 [+] 4.787 2024-11-11 21:04:02.148 0.048 6.990
50 km All 39211 CZ-4C R/B [-] 4.997 4.855E-02 0.013
GP Data 58747 STARLINK-31183 [+] 6.350 2024-11-13 03:47:37.051 0.055 2.919
50 km All 31791 SL-24 DEB [-] 6.375 4.000E-02 0.014
GP Data 54851 STARLINK-5084 [+] 5.241 2024-11-12 04:43:06.045 0.061 5.124
50 km All 39708 SL-16 DEB [-] 5.223 3.209E-02 0.015
GP Data 47510 ICEYE-X8 [+] 7.324 2024-11-14 10:05:59.584 0.056 12.226
50 km All 59852 STARLINK-31897 [+] 7.436 2.719E-02 0.020
GP Data 53027 STARLINK-4158 [+] 4.854 2024-11-11 13:48:38.180 0.063 10.792
50 km All 57182 MONITOR-4 (RS57S) [+] 4.455 2.442E-02 0.020

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Data: The GP Data button links to a page which provides the GP data used to generate the associated prediction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: SATCAT names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD GP or SupGP (green) element set used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Relative Speed (km/sec): Relative speed of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here. For more details on the maximum probability method, see Dr. Sal Alfano's paper titled "Relating Position Uncertainty to Maximum Conjunction Probability".
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • SGP4 Propagation Errors: A list of objects which were not screened because their GP data shows they have already decayed (but haven't yet been reflected in the SATCAT) or will decay prior to the end of the computation interval.