URGENT: We ran out of 5-digit catalog numbers with the addition of Saramago on 2026-07-11. We had estimated that to occur around 2026‑07‑12 back on 2026-05-09. The official USSF SATCAT is now at 100365. All newly cataloged objects will have 6-digit catalog numbers of 100000+ and GP data will not be available for them using the TLE format. CelesTrak developed new formats that removed the 5-digit catalog number limitation (and finally fixed the Y2K problem) in May 2020 and immediately began providing GP data in those formats for software developers. Please be sure to adhere to our usage policy when retrieving any CelesTrak data. The same limitations apply to the legacy fixed-field SATCAT. That legacy format will continue to update but will only contain data for objects with catalog numbers below 70000. Be sure to follow @TSKelso on Bluesky for the latest updates, tutorials, and changes as we move forward. Spread the word! ‑ TS

SOCRATES Plus

Search Results

 CelesTrak

Search parameters:

  • Name(s): Top 10 by Maximum Probability
  • Order by Maximum Probability
  • Return first 10 items

Data current as of 2026 Aug 16 10:37:30 UTC

Computation Interval: Start = 2026 Aug 16 10:00:00 UTC, Stop = 2026 Aug 23 10:00:00 UTC
Computation Threshold: 5.0 km
Considering: 16,339 Primaries, 32,235 Secondaries (149,065 Conjunctions)
15 SGP4 Propagation Errors
Computation run time: 11h 48m 40.441s

SOCRATES Format Documentation

See notes at bottom of page for data field descriptions

Data
&
Graphs		 NORAD
Catalog
Number		 Name [Ops Status] Days
Since
Epoch		 TCA
(UTC)		 Min
Range
(km)		 Relative
Speed
(km/sec)
Max
Probability		 Dilution
Threshold
(km)
GP Data 54692 JILIN-1 GAOFEN 03D47 [+] 4.594 2026-08-20 21:46:44.300 0.009 14.765
50 km All 68951 STARLINK-37258 [+] 5.539 1.000E+00 0.000
GP Data 100107 STARLINK-37864 [+] 5.968 2026-08-22 04:23:23.205 0.026 15.264
50 km All 100197 STARLINK-38224 [+] 5.940 2.347E-01 0.014
GP Data 58598 STARLINK-31079 [P] 3.524 2026-08-19 16:20:28.166 0.038 2.618
50 km All 62588 STARLINK-11185 [+] 3.609 2.056E-01 0.010
GP Data 47934 GRUS-1B [+] 5.042 2026-08-21 07:18:51.025 0.021 3.652
50 km All 55659 STARLINK-5477 [+] 5.176 2.027E-01 0.006
GP Data 43024 JILIN-1 06 [+] 3.580 2026-08-19 19:33:51.869 0.020 14.323
50 km All 58100 STARLINK-30600 [+] 3.754 1.424E-01 0.010
GP Data 57955 STARLINK-30702 [+] 6.532 2026-08-22 13:53:23.424 0.036 1.827
50 km All 68293 ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B [-] 6.748 8.781E-02 0.009
GP Data 61848 STARLINK-32427 [+] 2.895 2026-08-18 17:16:53.019 0.034 11.110
50 km All 67267 OBJECT V [+] 2.584 7.561E-02 0.011
GP Data 56944 NUSAT-41 (C PAYNE-G) [+] 7.121 2026-08-23 09:57:58.015 0.035 10.869
50 km All 59516 STARLINK-31671 [+] 7.309 7.442E-02 0.011
GP Data 48150 STARLINK-2493 [+] 5.626 2026-08-21 16:11:52.591 0.080 3.905
50 km All 48666 STARLINK-2666 [P] 5.630 6.014E-02 0.020
GP Data 54043 YAOGAN-36 02B [+] 2.514 2026-08-18 14:08:09.660 0.045 3.001
50 km All 64689 STARLINK-34538 [+] 2.513 5.824E-02 0.011

10 records found

Data Fields:
  • Data: The GP Data button links to a page which provides the GP data used to generate the associated prediction.
  • NORAD Catalog Number: NORAD Catalog Numbers of the two conjuncting objects.
  • Name: SATCAT names of the two conjuncting objects. Operational status of each object is shown in brackets, using the standard CelesTrak SATCAT codes.
  • Days Since Epoch: The number of days from the epoch of the NORAD GP or SupGP (green) element set used to produce the prediction until the time of closest approach for the conjunction.
  • TCA (UTC): Time of closest approach.
  • Min Range (km): The distance between the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Relative Speed (km/sec): Relative speed of the two conjuncting objects at the time of closest approach.
  • Max Probability: Given fixed spherical object radii and relative distance at the time of closest approach (TCA), the projected covariance ellipse is sized and oriented to produce the maximum probability. For these reports the ratio of major-to-minor axes of the projected covariance ellipse is set using radial, in-track, and cross-track values of 100 m, 300 m, 100 m, respectively. If the combined object radius is greater than the relative distance, the maximum probability will be one; such occurrences are not addressed here. For more details on the maximum probability method, see Dr. Sal Alfano's paper titled "Relating Position Uncertainty to Maximum Conjunction Probability".
  • Dilution Threshold (km): The standard deviation that produces the maximum probability defines the threshold of dilution. A smaller or larger standard deviation will produce a smaller probability. In the case of computing true probability with a smaller standard deviation, the data is of sufficient quality to associate low probability with low risk. For a larger standard deviation, this is not the case and the resulting true probability calculation becomes "diluted." If operating in this dilution region, the recommendation is to obtain better data and reassess the encounter. If time or resources do not permit, then the maximum probability should be used in place of the true probability.
  • SGP4 Propagation Errors: A list of objects which were not screened because their GP data shows they have already decayed (but haven't yet been reflected in the SATCAT) or will decay prior to the end of the computation interval.